|
MONTHLY NEWS September 1997 Space Travel Could Become Common in 25 Years |
A report projecting future technological developments in 14 areas, including medicine and energy, claims that electronic cash will be widely used by the year 2006 and that space travel will become commonplace by 2022.
The report, recently released by Japan's Science and Technology Agency, is based on research conducted by 5,000 scholars and experts on 1,712 subjects during 1996. The agency has been issuing forecasts every five years since 1971. The latest set of projections claims that a substitute for chlorofluorocarbons will be developed by the year 2007; that electronic elementary and middle schools will be available on the Internet by 2008 for those unable to attend real schools; that global carbon dioxide emissions in 2022 will be 20 percent lower than the 1990 level; and that it'll become possible to predict landslides caused by heavy rainfall by 2010. The report also says that the share of all cancer patients who live for five years or longer after developing the disease will exceed 70 percent by 2013. The share right now for stomach-cancer patients is around 40 percent. Some of the projected developments have had the year they materialize pushed back from earlier reports. An AIDS vaccine, for example, was thought to be available by 2004 in the 1991 projection, but it is now not expected until 2007. The most recent report noted that only 20 percent of the projections made 25 years ago have actually come true. Among the accurate predictions were the prevalent use of fax machines at home, the spread of car phones that operate on electromagnetic waves, and in vitro (test-tube) fertilization.
Photo: Former projections include the now-common portable telephone. (Kyodo) 
|